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We are a reality-based economic forecasting service tracking all key U.S. indicators ahead of release. We rely exclusively on the experiences of real business people in the center of the economic storm who are the true eyewitnesses to the economy's every move. No pundits, no spin – only facts and insights!

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Insights

There are few surprise on nonfarm payrolls for EconoPlay subscribers. We caught the entire train of above consensus data before the fact for three months in a row!

NOVEMBER: 

     NEW YORK (EconoPlay) Nov. 26 – November job orders surged as desperate employers took extra measures to nab workers, yet many companies remain understaffed as they deal with the annual holiday crunch, staffing executives say.

 

     Orders surged but unfilled orders surged even more, and the gulf between labor demand and supply just continues to widen.

 

     Enlightened employers are going the extra mile with better compensation packages, retention and referral bonuses, and (amazing they didn’t do this sooner) job training.

 

     How tight is labor? PetSmart used an email blast it normally reserves for online sales to say, “We’re hiring for the holidays!”

 

     There is pressure on wages, and everyone is perplexed as to why it’s not showing up in government data. And labor costs are certain to take another bounce when the employer mandate piece of the Affordable Care Act is implemented in January.

 

     With labor tight as it is, retention rates for seasonal workers are sure to soar after the holidays – beckoning some blowout numbers after the New Year as seasonal adjustments that (falsely) assume massive post-holiday layoffs come to play.


OCTOBER:

     NEW YORK (EconoPlay) Oct. 29 – Employers shrugged off the scary October headlines – Ebola, the Dow’s wild ride, a venomous midterm election – and hired as much as a constrained labor market allowed amid a solid holiday ramp up, staffing executives say.

     It would appear that decision-makers have become numb to media-generated hysteria given how prior episodes (Greece, government shutdowns, SARS, Middle East anything) never lived up to the hype of potentially derailing the U.S. economic recovery.

 

     Order books are bloated because there is need and not enough hands to get things done – and with demand for labor now outpacing supply, pay continues to move higher.

 

SEPTEMBER:

 

     NEW YORK (EconoPlay) Sept. 25 – Demand for workers remained strong in September, but responding to this excess of need remains a sore point as employers begin to beef up for the holiday ramp, recruiters say.

 

     A number of big retailers (and their suppliers, like UPS) have been announcing substantially increased hiring plans for the holiday season – but many are in for a rude awakening when it comes time to do the actual hiring in this labor-constricted market.

 

     Wage increases are now fairly rampant and salary budgets are up, which is the only real solution to the labor-availability problem, as companies seek to attract workers and, with headhunters on the prowl, hold on to the ones they have.


 
 
 
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